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These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Iowa explosive plays
CLEAR EDGE
Iowa offenseWisconsin defense
Iowa creates big-play value on successful plays far less often than most FBS teams, while Wisconsin allows big-play value on successful plays far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Wisconsin.
Offensive Explosiveness · 1.099Explosiveness measures the value created on successful plays, showing how damaging the big gains are.Among the weakest FBS results
Explosiveness allowed · 1.140Explosiveness allowed measures the value opponents create on their successful plays.Among the strongest FBS results
Comparison basis · Explosiveness vs explosiveness allowed
Wisconsin disruption vs Iowa
CLEAR EDGE
Iowa disruption allowedWisconsin disruption created
Iowa avoids tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles far more often than most FBS teams, while Wisconsin creates tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Iowa.
Havoc Rate allowed · 11.2%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Among the strongest FBS results
Defensive Havoc Rate · 13.2%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Worse than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Havoc allowed vs havoc created
Iowa staying on schedule
EDGE
Iowa offenseWisconsin defense
Iowa gains enough yardage for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while Wisconsin allows enough yardage for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Iowa.
Offensive Success Rate · 44.2%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 45.1%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
Wisconsin position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.Iowa position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Coverage and limitations
Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.
Forecast model · Data cutoff Oct. 28, 2026 · 2:49 AM ET