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These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Illinois staying on schedule
EDGE
Illinois offenseMaryland defense
Illinois gains enough yardage for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams, while Maryland allows enough yardage for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Illinois.
Offensive Success Rate · 47.6%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 43.3%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
Maryland run game
EDGE
Maryland offenseIllinois defense
Maryland gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams, while Illinois allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Illinois.
Rushing Success Rate · 37.5%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 41.8%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Maryland gains enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while Illinois allows enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Maryland.
Passing Success Rate · 40.0%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Passing Success Rate allowed · 48.3%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Illinois position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.Maryland position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Coverage and limitations
Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.
Forecast model · Data cutoff Oct. 28, 2026 · 2:49 AM ET