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Sat, Oct. 31 · 8:00 PM ET · Memorial Stadium (Lincoln, NE)
Washington 24%Nebraska 76%
SharpTake projects Nebraska to win.
NebraskaProjected winner
76%Win probability
Nebraska by 11.0Projected margin
SharpTakeNebraska by 11.0
Market SpreadNebraska -7.5
SharpTake is 3.5 points higher on Nebraska.
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Washington run game
CLEAR EDGE
Washington offenseNebraska defense
Washington gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams, while Nebraska allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Washington.
Rushing Success Rate · 49.1%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 46.8%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams
Washington scores points after possessions cross the opponent's 40-yard line more often than most FBS teams, while Nebraska allows points after possessions cross the opponent's 40-yard line far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Washington.
Points per scoring opportunity · 4.58 pointsFinishing drives measures points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40-yard line.Better than most FBS teams
Points allowed per scoring opportunity · 4.37 pointsFinishing drives measures points allowed per possession that reaches the defense's 40-yard line.Among the weakest FBS results
Comparison basis · Points per scoring opportunity, for and allowed
Season aggregates only. How a specific opponent forces field position and drive length is not captured here.
Washington staying on schedule
EDGE
Washington offenseNebraska defense
Washington gains enough yardage for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams, while Nebraska allows enough yardage for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Washington.
Offensive Success Rate · 48.9%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 42.7%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
Washington position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.Nebraska position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Coverage and limitations
Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.
Forecast model · Data cutoff Oct. 28, 2026 · 2:49 AM ET