SharpTake

Game forecast · REGULAR week 9

#20 NorthwesternatOregon

Sat, Oct. 31 · 3:30 PM ET · Autzen Stadium

SharpTake projects Oregon to win.

OregonProjected winner
68%Win probability
Oregon by 7.5Projected margin
SharpTakeOregon by 7.5
Market SpreadOregon -3.5

SharpTake is 4.0 points higher on Oregon.

On-field context

Matchup breakdown

These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.

Oregon staying on schedule

CLEAR EDGE
Oregon offenseNorthwestern defense

Oregon gains enough yardage for the down and distance more often than most FBS teams, while Northwestern allows enough yardage for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Oregon.

Offensive Success Rate · 47.5%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Better than most FBS teams
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 45.1%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results

Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed

Oregon pass game

CLEAR EDGE
Oregon offenseNorthwestern defense

Oregon gains enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams, while Northwestern allows enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Oregon.

Passing Success Rate · 47.6%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Passing Success Rate allowed · 44.1%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams

Comparison basis · Passing success rate vs passing success rate allowed

Oregon run game

EDGE
Oregon offenseNorthwestern defense

Oregon gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance more often than most FBS teams, while Northwestern allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Oregon.

Rushing Success Rate · 48.0%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Better than most FBS teams
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 46.7%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams

Comparison basis · Rushing success rate vs rushing success rate allowed

Explore

Go deeper

Team reads

Northwestern team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed. Oregon team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed. Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.

Position rooms

Northwestern position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Oregon position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Coverage and limitations
  • Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
  • Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
  • Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.

Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.

Forecast model · Data cutoff Oct. 28, 2026 · 2:49 AM ET

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