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Sat, Oct. 31 · 7:30 PM ET · Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
Ohio State 82%USC 18%
SharpTake projects Ohio State to win.
Ohio StateProjected winner
82%Win probability
Ohio State by 14.0Projected margin
SharpTakeOhio State by 14.0
Market SpreadOhio State -6.5
SharpTake is 7.5 points higher on Ohio State.
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Ohio State staying on schedule
CLEAR EDGE
Ohio State offenseUSC defense
Ohio State gains enough yardage for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams, while USC allows enough yardage for the down and distance more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Ohio State.
Offensive Success Rate · 53.2%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 45.0%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
Ohio State run game
CLEAR EDGE
Ohio State offenseUSC defense
Ohio State gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance more often than most FBS teams, while USC allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Ohio State.
Rushing Success Rate · 48.5%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Better than most FBS teams
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 47.6%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Ohio State creates big-play value on successful plays far less often than most FBS teams, while USC allows big-play value on successful plays less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors USC.
Offensive Explosiveness · 1.145Explosiveness measures the value created on successful plays, showing how damaging the big gains are.Among the weakest FBS results
Explosiveness allowed · 1.151Explosiveness allowed measures the value opponents create on their successful plays.Better than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Explosiveness vs explosiveness allowed
Ohio State position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.USC position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Coverage and limitations
Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.
Forecast model · Data cutoff Oct. 28, 2026 · 2:49 AM ET