SharpTake

FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 2

RiceatNotre Dame

Sat, Sep. 12 · 3:30 PM ET · Notre Dame Stadium

Rice0
Notre Dame52
CALLED

SharpTake projected Notre Dame at 96%. Notre Dame won.

ProjectedNotre Dame by 31.0
ActualNotre Dame by 52
Difference21.0 pts
Market spreadNotre Dame -44.75
Vs spreadLOSSSharpTake Pick: Rice +44.75

Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised

SharpTake projects Notre Dame to win.

Notre DameProjected winner
96%Win probability
Notre Dame by 31.0Projected margin

Why SharpTake leans

Why SharpTake leans Notre Dame

Notre Dame's overall quality is the biggest reason SharpTake favors Notre Dame. Notre Dame also has the edge in down-to-down efficiency and big-play ability, while Rice's record from last season pushes the other way.

Overall team quality

Strong Notre Dame advantage

Down-to-down efficiency

Strong Notre Dame advantage

Last season's results

Rice offset

Big-play ability

Notre Dame advantage

On-field context

Matchup breakdown

These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.

Rice staying on schedule

CLEAR EDGE
Rice offenseNotre Dame defense

Rice gains enough yardage for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams, while Notre Dame allows enough yardage for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Notre Dame.

Offensive Success Rate · 35.6%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 36.3%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results

Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed

Rice pass game

CLEAR EDGE
Rice offenseNotre Dame defense

Rice gains enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams, while Notre Dame allows enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Notre Dame.

Passing Success Rate · 31.3%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Passing Success Rate allowed · 35.0%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results

Comparison basis · Passing success rate vs passing success rate allowed

Notre Dame explosive plays

CLEAR EDGE
Notre Dame offenseRice defense

Notre Dame creates big-play value on successful plays far more often than most FBS teams, while Rice allows big-play value on successful plays far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Notre Dame.

Offensive Explosiveness · 1.497Explosiveness measures the value created on successful plays, showing how damaging the big gains are.Among the strongest FBS results
Explosiveness allowed · 1.483Explosiveness allowed measures the value opponents create on their successful plays.Among the weakest FBS results

Comparison basis · Explosiveness vs explosiveness allowed

Explore

Go deeper

Team reads

Rice team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed. Notre Dame team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed. Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.

Position rooms

Rice position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Notre Dame position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Coverage and limitations
  • Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
  • Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
  • Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.

Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.

Forecast model · Data cutoff Sep. 12, 2026 · 3:30 PM ET

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