SharpTake

Game forecast · REGULAR week 9

#5 Notre DamevsNavy

Sat, Oct. 31 · 12:00 PM ET · Gillette Stadium · NEUTRAL SITE

SharpTake projects Notre Dame to win.

Notre DameProjected winner
97%Win probability
Notre Dame by 33.0Projected margin
SharpTakeNotre Dame by 33.0
Market SpreadNotre Dame -30.5

SharpTake is 2.5 points higher on Notre Dame.

On-field context

Matchup breakdown

These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.

Notre Dame explosive plays

CLEAR EDGE
Notre Dame offenseNavy defense

Notre Dame creates big-play value on successful plays far more often than most FBS teams, while Navy allows big-play value on successful plays more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Notre Dame.

Offensive Explosiveness · 1.497Explosiveness measures the value created on successful plays, showing how damaging the big gains are.Among the strongest FBS results
Explosiveness allowed · 1.337Explosiveness allowed measures the value opponents create on their successful plays.Worse than most FBS teams

Comparison basis · Explosiveness vs explosiveness allowed

Notre Dame finishing drives

CLEAR EDGE
Notre Dame offenseNavy defense

Notre Dame scores points after possessions cross the opponent's 40-yard line far more often than most FBS teams, while Navy allows points after possessions cross the opponent's 40-yard line more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Notre Dame.

Points per scoring opportunity · 4.79 pointsFinishing drives measures points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40-yard line.Among the strongest FBS results
Points allowed per scoring opportunity · 4.20 pointsFinishing drives measures points allowed per possession that reaches the defense's 40-yard line.Worse than most FBS teams

Comparison basis · Points per scoring opportunity, for and allowed

Season aggregates only. How a specific opponent forces field position and drive length is not captured here.

Navy run game

EDGE
Navy offenseNotre Dame defense

Navy gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams, while Notre Dame allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Navy.

Rushing Success Rate · 51.7%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 39.0%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle

Comparison basis · Rushing success rate vs rushing success rate allowed

Explore

Go deeper

Team reads

Notre Dame team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed. Navy team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed. Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.

Position rooms

Notre Dame position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Navy position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Coverage and limitations
  • Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
  • Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
  • Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.

Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.

Forecast model · Data cutoff Oct. 28, 2026 · 2:49 AM ET

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