Current season's results
Strong Boise State advantage
Why SharpTake leans
Why SharpTake leans Boise State
Boise State's current season's results is the biggest reason SharpTake favors Boise State. Memphis's overall quality pushes the other way.
Overall team quality
Memphis offset
Current season's scoring performance
Memphis offset
Recent scoring performance
Memphis offset
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Memphis explosive plays
CLEAR EDGEMemphis offenseBoise State defense
Memphis creates big-play value on successful plays more often than most FBS teams, while Boise State allows big-play value on successful plays far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Memphis.
Offensive Explosiveness · 1.309Explosiveness measures the value created on successful plays, showing how damaging the big gains are.Better than most FBS teams
Explosiveness allowed · 1.428Explosiveness allowed measures the value opponents create on their successful plays.Among the weakest FBS results
Comparison basis · Explosiveness vs explosiveness allowed
Memphis staying on schedule
EDGEMemphis offenseBoise State defense
Memphis gains enough yardage for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while Boise State allows enough yardage for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Boise State.
Offensive Success Rate · 44.9%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 35.3%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
Memphis run game
EDGEMemphis offenseBoise State defense
Memphis gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams, while Boise State allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Memphis.
Rushing Success Rate · 49.5%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 40.2%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Rushing success rate vs rushing success rate allowed
Explore
Go deeper
Team reads
Memphis team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed.→
Boise State team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed.→
Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.→
Position rooms
Coverage and limitations
- Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
- Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
- Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.