Current season's scoring performance
Strong UTSA advantage
Why SharpTake leans
Why SharpTake leans UTSA
UTSA's current season's scoring performance is the biggest reason SharpTake favors UTSA. UTSA also has the edge in recent scoring performance and overall quality, while Texas State's current season's results pushes the other way.
Current season's results
Texas State offset
Recent scoring performance
Strong UTSA advantage
Overall team quality
UTSA advantage
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Texas State explosive plays
CLEAR EDGETexas State offenseUTSA defense
Texas State creates big-play value on successful plays more often than most FBS teams, while UTSA allows big-play value on successful plays far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Texas State.
Offensive Explosiveness · 1.346Explosiveness measures the value created on successful plays, showing how damaging the big gains are.Better than most FBS teams
Explosiveness allowed · 1.391Explosiveness allowed measures the value opponents create on their successful plays.Among the weakest FBS results
Comparison basis · Explosiveness vs explosiveness allowed
Texas State finishing drives
EDGETexas State offenseUTSA defense
Texas State scores points after possessions cross the opponent's 40-yard line more often than most FBS teams, while UTSA allows points after possessions cross the opponent's 40-yard line more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Texas State.
Points per scoring opportunity · 4.42 pointsFinishing drives measures points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40-yard line.Better than most FBS teams
Points allowed per scoring opportunity · 4.20 pointsFinishing drives measures points allowed per possession that reaches the defense's 40-yard line.Worse than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Points per scoring opportunity, for and allowed
Season aggregates only. How a specific opponent forces field position and drive length is not captured here.
Run game
NO EDGETexas State offenseUTSA defense
Texas State gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while UTSA allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams. The evidence does not separate the teams enough for an advantage here.
Rushing Success Rate · 45.3%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 38.1%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Better than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Rushing success rate vs rushing success rate allowed
Explore
Go deeper
Team reads
UTSA team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed.→
Texas State team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed.→
Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.→
Position rooms
Coverage and limitations
- Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
- Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
- Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.