FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 3

South DakotaatBoise State

Sat, Sep. 19 · 10:00 PM ET · Albertsons Stadium

South Dakota24

Boise State38

CALLED

SharpTake projected Boise State at 97%. Boise State won.

ProjectedBoise State by 29.0

ActualBoise State by 14

Difference15.0 pts

Market spreadBoise State -28.25

Vs spreadLOSSSharpTake Pick: Boise State -28.25

Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised

South Dakota 3%Boise State 97%

SharpTake projects Boise State to win.

Boise StateProjected winner

97%Win probability

Boise State by 29.0Projected margin

Explore

Go deeper

Boise State team readHow this team wins and where it is exposed.

Boise State position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.

Coverage and limitations

Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
Neither team has completed a game this season; the forecast rests on prior-season evidence.

Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.

Forecast model · Data cutoff Sep. 19, 2026 · 10:00 PM ET