Overall team quality
Strong James Madison advantage
Why SharpTake leans
Why SharpTake leans James Madison
James Madison's overall quality is the biggest reason SharpTake favors James Madison. James Madison also has the edge in down-to-down efficiency and current season's scoring performance, while San Diego State's current season's results pushes the other way.
Down-to-down efficiency
Strong James Madison advantage
Current season's results
San Diego State offset
Current season's scoring performance
James Madison advantage
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
San Diego State pass game
CLEAR EDGESan Diego State offenseJames Madison defense
San Diego State gains enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams, while James Madison allows enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors James Madison.
Passing Success Rate · 35.3%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Passing Success Rate allowed · 29.1%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Comparison basis · Passing success rate vs passing success rate allowed
San Diego State staying on schedule
EDGESan Diego State offenseJames Madison defense
San Diego State gains enough yardage for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while James Madison allows enough yardage for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors James Madison.
Offensive Success Rate · 41.2%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 30.1%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
San Diego State run game
EDGESan Diego State offenseJames Madison defense
San Diego State gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while James Madison allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors James Madison.
Rushing Success Rate · 45.3%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 31.7%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Comparison basis · Rushing success rate vs rushing success rate allowed
Explore
Go deeper
Team reads
James Madison team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed.→
San Diego State team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed.→
Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.→
Position rooms
Coverage and limitations
- Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
- Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
- Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.