Overall team quality
Strong North Texas advantage
FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 3
North TexasatTexas State
North Texas35
Texas State49
MISSED
SharpTake projected North Texas at 62%. Texas State won.
ProjectedNorth Texas by 3.5
ActualTexas State by 14
Difference17.5 pts
Market spreadTexas State -3
Vs spreadLOSSSharpTake Pick: North Texas +3
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
North Texas 62%Texas State 38%
SharpTake projects North Texas to win.
North TexasProjected winner
62%Win probability
North Texas by 3.5Projected margin
Why SharpTake leans
Why SharpTake leans North Texas
North Texas's overall quality is the biggest reason SharpTake favors North Texas. North Texas also has the edge in current season's scoring performance, while Texas State's current season's results pushes the other way.
Current season's results
Texas State offset
Last season's results
Texas State offset
Current season's scoring performance
North Texas advantage
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
North Texas disruption vs Texas State
CLEAR EDGETexas State disruption allowedNorth Texas disruption created
Texas State avoids tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles far more often than most FBS teams, while North Texas creates tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Texas State.
Havoc Rate allowed · 12.1%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Among the strongest FBS results
Defensive Havoc Rate · 13.8%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Worse than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Havoc allowed vs havoc created
North Texas staying on schedule
EDGENorth Texas offenseTexas State defense
North Texas gains enough yardage for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams, while Texas State allows enough yardage for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors North Texas.
Offensive Success Rate · 51.6%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 41.2%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
North Texas run game
EDGENorth Texas offenseTexas State defense
North Texas gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams, while Texas State allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors North Texas.
Rushing Success Rate · 51.9%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 40.9%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Rushing success rate vs rushing success rate allowed
Explore
Go deeper
Team reads
North Texas team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed.→
Texas State team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed.→
Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.→
Position rooms
Coverage and limitations
- Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
- Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
- Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.