Overall team quality
Strong Fresno State advantage
FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 4
RiceatFresno State
Rice24
Fresno State38
CALLED
SharpTake projected Fresno State at 81%. Fresno State won.
ProjectedFresno State by 13.5
ActualFresno State by 14
Difference0.5 pts
Market spreadFresno State -12.5
Vs spreadWINSharpTake Pick: Fresno State -12.5
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Rice 19%Fresno State 81%
SharpTake projects Fresno State to win.
Fresno StateProjected winner
81%Win probability
Fresno State by 13.5Projected margin
Why SharpTake leans
Why SharpTake leans Fresno State
Fresno State's overall quality is the biggest reason SharpTake favors Fresno State. Fresno State also has the edge in current season's scoring performance, while Rice's record from last season pushes the other way.
Last season's results
Rice offset
Current season's results
Rice offset
Current season's scoring performance
Fresno State advantage
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Rice staying on schedule
CLEAR EDGERice offenseFresno State defense
Rice gains enough yardage for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams, while Fresno State allows enough yardage for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Fresno State.
Offensive Success Rate · 35.5%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 38.2%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Better than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
Rice pass game
CLEAR EDGERice offenseFresno State defense
Rice gains enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams, while Fresno State allows enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Fresno State.
Passing Success Rate · 31.6%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Passing Success Rate allowed · 35.4%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Better than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Passing success rate vs passing success rate allowed
Rice run game
EDGERice offenseFresno State defense
Rice gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams, while Fresno State allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Fresno State.
Rushing Success Rate · 37.3%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 41.6%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Rushing success rate vs rushing success rate allowed
Explore
Go deeper
Team reads
Rice team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed.→
Fresno State team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed.→
Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.→
Position rooms
Coverage and limitations
- Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
- Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
- Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.