FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 4

Incarnate WordatTexas State

Sat, Sep. 26 · 6:00 PM ET · Bobcat Stadium (TX)

Incarnate Word10

Texas State63

CALLED

SharpTake projected Texas State at 98%. Texas State won.

ProjectedTexas State by 32.0

ActualTexas State by 53

Difference21.0 pts

Market spreadTexas State -30.5

Vs spreadWINSharpTake Pick: Texas State -30.5

Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised

Incarnate Word 2%Texas State 98%

SharpTake projects Texas State to win.

Texas StateProjected winner

98%Win probability

Texas State by 32.0Projected margin

Explore

Go deeper

Texas State team readHow this team wins and where it is exposed.

Texas State position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.

Coverage and limitations

Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
Neither team has completed a game this season; the forecast rests on prior-season evidence.

Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.

Forecast model · Data cutoff Sep. 26, 2026 · 6:00 PM ET