Down-to-down efficiency
Toledo advantage
FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 4
San Diego StateatToledo
San Diego State16
Toledo41
CALLED
SharpTake projected Toledo at 77%. Toledo won.
ProjectedToledo by 11.0
ActualToledo by 25
Difference14.0 pts
Market spreadToledo -2.75
Vs spreadWINSharpTake Pick: Toledo -2.75
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
San Diego State 23%Toledo 77%
SharpTake projects Toledo to win.
ToledoProjected winner
77%Win probability
Toledo by 11.0Projected margin
Why SharpTake leans
Why SharpTake leans Toledo
Toledo's down-to-down efficiency is the biggest reason SharpTake favors Toledo. Toledo also has the edge in overall quality and current season's scoring performance, while San Diego State's current season's results pushes the other way.
Current season's results
San Diego State offset
Overall team quality
Toledo advantage
Current season's scoring performance
Slight Toledo advantage
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
San Diego State pass game
CLEAR EDGESan Diego State offenseToledo defense
San Diego State gains enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams, while Toledo allows enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Toledo.
Passing Success Rate · 35.2%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Passing Success Rate allowed · 28.4%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Comparison basis · Passing success rate vs passing success rate allowed
San Diego State explosive plays
CLEAR EDGESan Diego State offenseToledo defense
San Diego State creates big-play value on successful plays less often than most FBS teams, while Toledo allows big-play value on successful plays far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Toledo.
Offensive Explosiveness · 1.178Explosiveness measures the value created on successful plays, showing how damaging the big gains are.Worse than most FBS teams
Explosiveness allowed · 1.129Explosiveness allowed measures the value opponents create on their successful plays.Among the strongest FBS results
Comparison basis · Explosiveness vs explosiveness allowed
Toledo staying on schedule
EDGEToledo offenseSan Diego State defense
Toledo gains enough yardage for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while San Diego State allows enough yardage for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors San Diego State.
Offensive Success Rate · 44.6%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 35.5%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
Explore
Go deeper
Team reads
San Diego State team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed.→
Toledo team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed.→
Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.→
Position rooms
Coverage and limitations
- Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
- Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
- Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.