Overall team quality
Strong Troy advantage
FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 4
TroyatUtah State
Troy10
Utah State21
MISSED
SharpTake projected Troy at 53%. Utah State won.
ProjectedPick'em
ActualUtah State by 11
Difference11.0 pts
Market spreadUtah State -3
Vs spreadLOSSSharpTake Pick: Troy +3
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Troy 53%Utah State 47%
SharpTake projects Troy to win.
TroyProjected winner
53%Win probability
Pick'emProjected margin
Why SharpTake leans
Why SharpTake leans Troy
Troy's overall quality is the biggest reason SharpTake favors Troy. Troy also has the edge in current season's scoring performance and recent scoring performance, while Utah State's current season's results pushes the other way.
Current season's results
Utah State offset
Current season's scoring performance
Troy advantage
Recent scoring performance
Slight Troy advantage
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Staying on schedule
NO EDGETroy offenseUtah State defense
Troy gains enough yardage for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams, while Utah State allows enough yardage for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. The evidence does not separate the teams enough for an advantage here.
Offensive Success Rate · 37.7%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 42.7%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
Run game
NO EDGETroy offenseUtah State defense
Troy gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams, while Utah State allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. The evidence does not separate the teams enough for an advantage here.
Rushing Success Rate · 38.0%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 44.8%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Rushing success rate vs rushing success rate allowed
Pass game
NO EDGETroy offenseUtah State defense
Troy gains enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams, while Utah State allows enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. The evidence does not separate the teams enough for an advantage here.
Passing Success Rate · 37.9%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams
Passing Success Rate allowed · 40.8%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Passing success rate vs passing success rate allowed
Explore
Go deeper
Team reads
Troy team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed.→
Utah State team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed.→
Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.→
Position rooms
Coverage and limitations
- Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
- Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
- Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.