Overall team quality
Oregon State advantage
FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 4
Oregon StateatUTEP
Oregon State33
UTEP7
CALLED
SharpTake projected Oregon State at 59%. Oregon State won.
ProjectedOregon State by 3.5
ActualOregon State by 26
Difference22.5 pts
Market spreadOregon State -11.25
Vs spreadLOSSSharpTake Pick: UTEP +11.25
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Oregon State 59%UTEP 41%
SharpTake projects Oregon State to win.
Oregon StateProjected winner
59%Win probability
Oregon State by 3.5Projected margin
Why SharpTake leans
Why SharpTake leans Oregon State
Oregon State's overall quality is the biggest reason SharpTake favors Oregon State. Oregon State also has the edge in down-to-down efficiency and current season's scoring performance.
Down-to-down efficiency
Oregon State advantage
Current season's scoring performance
Oregon State advantage
Recent scoring performance
Slight Oregon State advantage
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
UTEP explosive plays
CLEAR EDGEUTEP offenseOregon State defense
UTEP creates big-play value on successful plays far more often than most FBS teams, while Oregon State allows big-play value on successful plays far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors UTEP.
Offensive Explosiveness · 1.452Explosiveness measures the value created on successful plays, showing how damaging the big gains are.Among the strongest FBS results
Explosiveness allowed · 1.405Explosiveness allowed measures the value opponents create on their successful plays.Among the weakest FBS results
Comparison basis · Explosiveness vs explosiveness allowed
UTEP pass game
CLEAR EDGEUTEP offenseOregon State defense
UTEP gains enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams, while Oregon State allows enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Oregon State.
Passing Success Rate · 31.4%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Passing Success Rate allowed · 36.5%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Better than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Passing success rate vs passing success rate allowed
Oregon State disruption vs UTEP
CLEAR EDGEUTEP disruption allowedOregon State disruption created
UTEP avoids tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles far less often than most FBS teams, while Oregon State creates tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Oregon State.
Havoc Rate allowed · 18.6%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Among the weakest FBS results
Defensive Havoc Rate · 17.3%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Better than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Havoc allowed vs havoc created
Explore
Go deeper
Team reads
Oregon State team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed.→
UTEP team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed.→
Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.→
Position rooms
Coverage and limitations
- Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
- Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
- Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.