Overall team quality
Strong UTSA advantage
FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 4
Colorado StateatUTSA
Colorado State45
UTSA59
CALLED
SharpTake projected UTSA at 78%. UTSA won.
ProjectedUTSA by 12.0
ActualUTSA by 14
Difference2.0 pts
Market spreadUTSA -14.5
Vs spreadWINSharpTake Pick: Colorado State +14.5
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Colorado State 22%UTSA 78%
SharpTake projects UTSA to win.
UTSAProjected winner
78%Win probability
UTSA by 12.0Projected margin
Why SharpTake leans
Why SharpTake leans UTSA
UTSA's overall quality is the biggest reason SharpTake favors UTSA. UTSA also has the edge in down-to-down efficiency and running-game efficiency, while Colorado State's record from last season pushes the other way.
Down-to-down efficiency
UTSA advantage
Last season's results
Colorado State offset
Running-game efficiency
Slight UTSA advantage
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
UTSA disruption vs Colorado State
CLEAR EDGEColorado State disruption allowedUTSA disruption created
Colorado State avoids tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles far less often than most FBS teams, while UTSA creates tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors UTSA.
Havoc Rate allowed · 18.8%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Among the weakest FBS results
Defensive Havoc Rate · 18.5%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Better than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Havoc allowed vs havoc created
Colorado State staying on schedule
EDGEColorado State offenseUTSA defense
Colorado State gains enough yardage for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams, while UTSA allows enough yardage for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors UTSA.
Offensive Success Rate · 39.7%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 38.1%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Better than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
UTSA pass game
EDGEUTSA offenseColorado State defense
UTSA gains enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance more often than most FBS teams, while Colorado State allows enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors UTSA.
Passing Success Rate · 45.5%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Better than most FBS teams
Passing Success Rate allowed · 44.9%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Passing success rate vs passing success rate allowed
Explore
Go deeper
Team reads
Colorado State team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed.→
UTSA team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed.→
Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.→
Position rooms
Coverage and limitations
- Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
- Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
- Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.