Down-to-down efficiency
Boise State offset
FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 4
Boise StateatWestern Michigan
Boise State32
Western Michigan7
MISSED
SharpTake projected Western Michigan at 53%. Boise State won.
ProjectedWestern Michigan by 1.5
ActualBoise State by 25
Difference26.5 pts
Market spreadBoise State -7.5
Vs spreadLOSSSharpTake Pick: Western Michigan +7.5
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Boise State 47%Western Michigan 53%
SharpTake projects Western Michigan to win.
Western MichiganProjected winner
53%Win probability
Western Michigan by 1.5Projected margin
Why SharpTake leans
Why SharpTake leans Western Michigan
Western Michigan's big-play ability is the biggest reason SharpTake favors Western Michigan. Boise State's down-to-down efficiency pushes the other way.
Big-play ability
Western Michigan advantage
Overall team quality
Boise State offset
Running-game efficiency
Boise State offset
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Western Michigan pass game
CLEAR EDGEWestern Michigan offenseBoise State defense
Western Michigan gains enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams, while Boise State allows enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Boise State.
Passing Success Rate · 37.3%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams
Passing Success Rate allowed · 31.6%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Comparison basis · Passing success rate vs passing success rate allowed
Western Michigan staying on schedule
EDGEWestern Michigan offenseBoise State defense
Western Michigan gains enough yardage for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while Boise State allows enough yardage for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Boise State.
Offensive Success Rate · 42.4%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 35.6%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
Boise State finishing drives
EDGEBoise State offenseWestern Michigan defense
Boise State scores points after possessions cross the opponent's 40-yard line at a rate near the FBS middle, while Western Michigan allows points after possessions cross the opponent's 40-yard line far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Western Michigan.
Points per scoring opportunity · 3.66 pointsFinishing drives measures points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40-yard line.Near the FBS middle
Points allowed per scoring opportunity · 2.83 pointsFinishing drives measures points allowed per possession that reaches the defense's 40-yard line.Among the strongest FBS results
Comparison basis · Points per scoring opportunity, for and allowed
Season aggregates only. How a specific opponent forces field position and drive length is not captured here.
Explore
Go deeper
Team reads
Boise State team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed.→
Western Michigan team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed.→
Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.→
Position rooms
Coverage and limitations
- Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
- Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
- Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.