Overall team quality
Strong Boise State advantage
FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 5
Utah StateatBoise State
Utah State18
Boise State37
CALLED
SharpTake projected Boise State at 87%. Boise State won.
ProjectedBoise State by 18.5
ActualBoise State by 19
Difference0.5 pts
Market spreadBoise State -19.5
Vs spreadWINSharpTake Pick: Utah State +19.5
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Utah State 13%Boise State 87%
SharpTake projects Boise State to win.
Boise StateProjected winner
87%Win probability
Boise State by 18.5Projected margin
Why SharpTake leans
Why SharpTake leans Boise State
Boise State's overall quality is the biggest reason SharpTake favors Boise State. Boise State also has the edge in down-to-down efficiency, while Utah State's current season's results pushes the other way.
Down-to-down efficiency
Strong Boise State advantage
Current season's results
Utah State offset
Big-play ability
Utah State offset
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Utah State explosive plays
CLEAR EDGEUtah State offenseBoise State defense
Utah State creates big-play value on successful plays more often than most FBS teams, while Boise State allows big-play value on successful plays far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Utah State.
Offensive Explosiveness · 1.312Explosiveness measures the value created on successful plays, showing how damaging the big gains are.Better than most FBS teams
Explosiveness allowed · 1.381Explosiveness allowed measures the value opponents create on their successful plays.Among the weakest FBS results
Comparison basis · Explosiveness vs explosiveness allowed
Utah State staying on schedule
EDGEUtah State offenseBoise State defense
Utah State gains enough yardage for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while Boise State allows enough yardage for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Boise State.
Offensive Success Rate · 41.1%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 35.6%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
Utah State pass game
EDGEUtah State offenseBoise State defense
Utah State gains enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while Boise State allows enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Boise State.
Passing Success Rate · 41.0%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Passing Success Rate allowed · 31.6%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Comparison basis · Passing success rate vs passing success rate allowed
Explore
Go deeper
Team reads
Utah State team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed.→
Boise State team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed.→
Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.→
Position rooms
Coverage and limitations
- Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
- Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
- Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.