Down-to-down efficiency
Oregon State advantage
FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 5
Oregon StateatColorado State
Oregon State56
Colorado State26
CALLED
SharpTake projected Oregon State at 56%. Oregon State won.
ProjectedOregon State by 2.0
ActualOregon State by 30
Difference28.0 pts
Market spreadOregon State -7
Vs spreadLOSSSharpTake Pick: Colorado State +7
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Oregon State 56%Colorado State 44%
SharpTake projects Oregon State to win.
Oregon StateProjected winner
56%Win probability
Oregon State by 2.0Projected margin
Why SharpTake leans
Why SharpTake leans Oregon State
Oregon State's down-to-down efficiency is the biggest reason SharpTake favors Oregon State. Oregon State also has the edge in overall quality and recent scoring performance, while Colorado State's passing efficiency pushes the other way.
Overall team quality
Oregon State advantage
Recent scoring performance
Slight Oregon State advantage
Passing efficiency
Colorado State offset
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Oregon State disruption vs Colorado State
CLEAR EDGEColorado State disruption allowedOregon State disruption created
Colorado State avoids tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles far less often than most FBS teams, while Oregon State creates tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Oregon State.
Havoc Rate allowed · 18.8%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Among the weakest FBS results
Defensive Havoc Rate · 17.3%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Better than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Havoc allowed vs havoc created
Colorado State pass game
EDGEColorado State offenseOregon State defense
Colorado State gains enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams, while Oregon State allows enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Oregon State.
Passing Success Rate · 37.1%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams
Passing Success Rate allowed · 36.5%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Better than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Passing success rate vs passing success rate allowed
Oregon State explosive plays
EDGEOregon State offenseColorado State defense
Oregon State creates big-play value on successful plays far less often than most FBS teams, while Colorado State allows big-play value on successful plays at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Colorado State.
Offensive Explosiveness · 1.060Explosiveness measures the value created on successful plays, showing how damaging the big gains are.Among the weakest FBS results
Explosiveness allowed · 1.258Explosiveness allowed measures the value opponents create on their successful plays.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Explosiveness vs explosiveness allowed
Explore
Go deeper
Team reads
Oregon State team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed.→
Colorado State team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed.→
Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.→
Position rooms
Coverage and limitations
- Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
- Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
- Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.