Overall team quality
Strong Texas State advantage
FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 5
Texas StateatSan Diego State
Texas State29
San Diego State31
MISSED
SharpTake projected Texas State at 72%. San Diego State won.
ProjectedTexas State by 8.5
ActualSan Diego State by 2
Difference10.5 pts
Market spreadTexas State -9.5
Vs spreadWINSharpTake Pick: San Diego State +9.5
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Texas State 72%San Diego State 28%
SharpTake projects Texas State to win.
Texas StateProjected winner
72%Win probability
Texas State by 8.5Projected margin
Why SharpTake leans
Why SharpTake leans Texas State
Texas State's overall quality is the biggest reason SharpTake favors Texas State. Texas State also has the edge in recent scoring performance and down-to-down efficiency, while San Diego State's current season's results pushes the other way.
Recent scoring performance
Texas State advantage
Down-to-down efficiency
Texas State advantage
Current season's results
San Diego State offset
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
San Diego State pass game
EDGESan Diego State offenseTexas State defense
San Diego State gains enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams, while Texas State allows enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Texas State.
Passing Success Rate · 35.2%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Passing Success Rate allowed · 42.0%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Passing success rate vs passing success rate allowed
San Diego State disruption vs Texas State
EDGETexas State disruption allowedSan Diego State disruption created
Texas State avoids tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles far more often than most FBS teams, while San Diego State creates tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Texas State.
Havoc Rate allowed · 12.1%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Among the strongest FBS results
Defensive Havoc Rate · 15.4%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Havoc allowed vs havoc created
Staying on schedule
NO EDGETexas State offenseSan Diego State defense
Texas State gains enough yardage for the down and distance more often than most FBS teams, while San Diego State allows enough yardage for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams. The evidence does not separate the teams enough for an advantage here.
Offensive Success Rate · 45.6%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Better than most FBS teams
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 35.5%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
Explore
Go deeper
Team reads
Texas State team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed.→
San Diego State team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed.→
Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.→
Position rooms
Coverage and limitations
- Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
- Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
- Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.