Down-to-down efficiency
Strong Boise State advantage
FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 6
Boise StateatFresno State
Boise State38
Fresno State31
CALLED
SharpTake projected Boise State at 60%. Boise State won.
ProjectedBoise State by 4.5
ActualBoise State by 7
Difference2.5 pts
Market spreadBoise State -9
Vs spreadWINSharpTake Pick: Fresno State +9
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Boise State 60%Fresno State 40%
SharpTake projects Boise State to win.
Boise StateProjected winner
60%Win probability
Boise State by 4.5Projected margin
Why SharpTake leans
Why SharpTake leans Boise State
Boise State's down-to-down efficiency is the biggest reason SharpTake favors Boise State. Boise State also has the edge in overall quality and running-game efficiency, while Fresno State's big-play ability pushes the other way.
Overall team quality
Boise State advantage
Big-play ability
Fresno State offset
Running-game efficiency
Boise State advantage
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Fresno State staying on schedule
CLEAR EDGEFresno State offenseBoise State defense
Fresno State gains enough yardage for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams, while Boise State allows enough yardage for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Boise State.
Offensive Success Rate · 39.8%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 35.6%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
Fresno State pass game
EDGEFresno State offenseBoise State defense
Fresno State gains enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while Boise State allows enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Boise State.
Passing Success Rate · 41.2%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Passing Success Rate allowed · 31.6%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Comparison basis · Passing success rate vs passing success rate allowed
Boise State explosive plays
EDGEBoise State offenseFresno State defense
Boise State creates big-play value on successful plays at a rate near the FBS middle, while Fresno State allows big-play value on successful plays far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Fresno State.
Offensive Explosiveness · 1.288Explosiveness measures the value created on successful plays, showing how damaging the big gains are.Near the FBS middle
Explosiveness allowed · 1.147Explosiveness allowed measures the value opponents create on their successful plays.Among the strongest FBS results
Comparison basis · Explosiveness vs explosiveness allowed
Explore
Go deeper
Team reads
Boise State team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed.→
Fresno State team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed.→
Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.→
Position rooms
Coverage and limitations
- Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
- Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
- Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.