Last season's results
Strong Oregon State advantage
FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 6
San Diego StateatOregon State
San Diego State14
Oregon State66
CALLED
SharpTake projected Oregon State at 82%. Oregon State won.
ProjectedOregon State by 14.0
ActualOregon State by 52
Difference38.0 pts
Market spreadOregon State -16.5
Vs spreadLOSSSharpTake Pick: San Diego State +16.5
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
San Diego State 18%Oregon State 82%
SharpTake projects Oregon State to win.
Oregon StateProjected winner
82%Win probability
Oregon State by 14.0Projected margin
Why SharpTake leans
Why SharpTake leans Oregon State
Oregon State's record from last season is the biggest reason SharpTake favors Oregon State. Oregon State also has the edge in down-to-down efficiency and recent scoring performance, while San Diego State's overall quality pushes the other way.
Down-to-down efficiency
Oregon State advantage
Recent scoring performance
Oregon State advantage
Overall team quality
San Diego State offset
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Oregon State explosive plays
CLEAR EDGEOregon State offenseSan Diego State defense
Oregon State creates big-play value on successful plays far less often than most FBS teams, while San Diego State allows big-play value on successful plays far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors San Diego State.
Offensive Explosiveness · 1.060Explosiveness measures the value created on successful plays, showing how damaging the big gains are.Among the weakest FBS results
Explosiveness allowed · 1.147Explosiveness allowed measures the value opponents create on their successful plays.Among the strongest FBS results
Comparison basis · Explosiveness vs explosiveness allowed
Oregon State finishing drives
CLEAR EDGEOregon State offenseSan Diego State defense
Oregon State scores points after possessions cross the opponent's 40-yard line far less often than most FBS teams, while San Diego State allows points after possessions cross the opponent's 40-yard line far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors San Diego State.
Points per scoring opportunity · 2.89 pointsFinishing drives measures points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40-yard line.Among the weakest FBS results
Points allowed per scoring opportunity · 2.42 pointsFinishing drives measures points allowed per possession that reaches the defense's 40-yard line.Among the strongest FBS results
Comparison basis · Points per scoring opportunity, for and allowed
Season aggregates only. How a specific opponent forces field position and drive length is not captured here.
San Diego State pass game
CLEAR EDGESan Diego State offenseOregon State defense
San Diego State gains enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams, while Oregon State allows enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Oregon State.
Passing Success Rate · 35.2%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Passing Success Rate allowed · 36.5%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Better than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Passing success rate vs passing success rate allowed
Explore
Go deeper
Team reads
San Diego State team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed.→
Oregon State team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed.→
Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.→
Position rooms
Coverage and limitations
- Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
- Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
- Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.