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SharpTake projected Oregon State at 82%. Oregon State won.
ProjectedOregon State by 14.5
ActualOregon State by 18
Difference3.5 pts
Market spreadOregon State -18.5
Vs spreadWINSharpTake Pick: Washington State +18.5
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Washington State 18%Oregon State 82%
SharpTake projects Oregon State to win.
Oregon StateProjected winner
82%Win probability
Oregon State by 14.5Projected margin
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Oregon State explosive plays
CLEAR EDGE
Oregon State offenseWashington State defense
Oregon State creates big-play value on successful plays far less often than most FBS teams, while Washington State allows big-play value on successful plays far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Washington State.
Offensive Explosiveness · 1.060Explosiveness measures the value created on successful plays, showing how damaging the big gains are.Among the weakest FBS results
Explosiveness allowed · 1.056Explosiveness allowed measures the value opponents create on their successful plays.Among the strongest FBS results
Comparison basis · Explosiveness vs explosiveness allowed
Oregon State finishing drives
CLEAR EDGE
Oregon State offenseWashington State defense
Oregon State scores points after possessions cross the opponent's 40-yard line far less often than most FBS teams, while Washington State allows points after possessions cross the opponent's 40-yard line less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Washington State.
Points per scoring opportunity · 2.89 pointsFinishing drives measures points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40-yard line.Among the weakest FBS results
Points allowed per scoring opportunity · 3.14 pointsFinishing drives measures points allowed per possession that reaches the defense's 40-yard line.Better than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Points per scoring opportunity, for and allowed
Season aggregates only. How a specific opponent forces field position and drive length is not captured here.
Pass game
NO EDGE
Washington State offenseOregon State defense
Washington State gains enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while Oregon State allows enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams. The evidence does not separate the teams enough for an advantage here.
Passing Success Rate · 41.1%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Passing Success Rate allowed · 36.5%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Better than most FBS teams
Washington State position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.Oregon State position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Coverage and limitations
Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.
Forecast model · Data cutoff Oct. 17, 2026 · 1:32 AM ET