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SharpTake projected Fresno State at 72%. San Diego State won.
ProjectedFresno State by 8.5
ActualSan Diego State by 3
Difference11.5 pts
Market spreadFresno State -7
Vs spreadLOSSSharpTake Pick: Fresno State -7
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Fresno State 72%San Diego State 28%
SharpTake projects Fresno State to win.
Fresno StateProjected winner
72%Win probability
Fresno State by 8.5Projected margin
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Fresno State staying on schedule
CLEAR EDGE
Fresno State offenseSan Diego State defense
Fresno State gains enough yardage for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams, while San Diego State allows enough yardage for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors San Diego State.
Offensive Success Rate · 39.8%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 35.5%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
San Diego State pass game
CLEAR EDGE
San Diego State offenseFresno State defense
San Diego State gains enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams, while Fresno State allows enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Fresno State.
Passing Success Rate · 35.2%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Passing Success Rate allowed · 35.4%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Better than most FBS teams
San Diego State creates big-play value on successful plays less often than most FBS teams, while Fresno State allows big-play value on successful plays far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Fresno State.
Offensive Explosiveness · 1.178Explosiveness measures the value created on successful plays, showing how damaging the big gains are.Worse than most FBS teams
Explosiveness allowed · 1.147Explosiveness allowed measures the value opponents create on their successful plays.Among the strongest FBS results
Comparison basis · Explosiveness vs explosiveness allowed
Fresno State position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.San Diego State position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Coverage and limitations
Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.
Forecast model · Data cutoff Oct. 17, 2026 · 1:32 AM ET