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SharpTake projected Texas State at 78%. Texas State won.
ProjectedTexas State by 12.0
ActualTexas State by 3
Difference9.0 pts
Market spreadTexas State -14.25
Vs spreadWINSharpTake Pick: Utah State +14.25
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Utah State 22%Texas State 78%
SharpTake projects Texas State to win.
Texas StateProjected winner
78%Win probability
Texas State by 12.0Projected margin
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Utah State disruption vs Texas State
CLEAR EDGE
Texas State disruption allowedUtah State disruption created
Texas State avoids tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles far more often than most FBS teams, while Utah State creates tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Texas State.
Havoc Rate allowed · 12.1%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Among the strongest FBS results
Defensive Havoc Rate · 13.5%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Worse than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Havoc allowed vs havoc created
Staying on schedule
NO EDGE
Texas State offenseUtah State defense
Texas State gains enough yardage for the down and distance more often than most FBS teams, while Utah State allows enough yardage for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. The evidence does not separate the teams enough for an advantage here.
Offensive Success Rate · 45.6%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Better than most FBS teams
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 42.7%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
Pass game
NO EDGE
Texas State offenseUtah State defense
Texas State gains enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance more often than most FBS teams, while Utah State allows enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. The evidence does not separate the teams enough for an advantage here.
Passing Success Rate · 46.1%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Better than most FBS teams
Passing Success Rate allowed · 40.8%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Utah State position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.Texas State position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Coverage and limitations
Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.
Forecast model · Data cutoff Oct. 24, 2026 · 7:58 AM ET