SharpTake

FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 8

Boise StateatWashington State

Sat, Oct. 24 · 6:00 PM ET · Gesa Field

Boise State31
Washington State10
CALLED

SharpTake projected Boise State at 84%. Boise State won.

ProjectedBoise State by 15.5
ActualBoise State by 21
Difference5.5 pts
Market spreadBoise State -14.25
Vs spreadWINSharpTake Pick: Boise State -14.25

Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised

SharpTake projects Boise State to win.

Boise StateProjected winner
84%Win probability
Boise State by 15.5Projected margin

On-field context

Matchup breakdown

These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.

Washington State staying on schedule

EDGE
Washington State offenseBoise State defense

Washington State gains enough yardage for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while Boise State allows enough yardage for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Boise State.

Offensive Success Rate · 41.7%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 35.6%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results

Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed

Washington State pass game

EDGE
Washington State offenseBoise State defense

Washington State gains enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while Boise State allows enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Boise State.

Passing Success Rate · 41.1%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Passing Success Rate allowed · 31.6%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results

Comparison basis · Passing success rate vs passing success rate allowed

Boise State explosive plays

EDGE
Boise State offenseWashington State defense

Boise State creates big-play value on successful plays at a rate near the FBS middle, while Washington State allows big-play value on successful plays far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Washington State.

Offensive Explosiveness · 1.288Explosiveness measures the value created on successful plays, showing how damaging the big gains are.Near the FBS middle
Explosiveness allowed · 1.056Explosiveness allowed measures the value opponents create on their successful plays.Among the strongest FBS results

Comparison basis · Explosiveness vs explosiveness allowed

Explore

Go deeper

Team reads

Boise State team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed. Washington State team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed. Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.

Position rooms

Boise State position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Washington State position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Coverage and limitations
  • Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
  • Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
  • Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.

Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.

Forecast model · Data cutoff Oct. 24, 2026 · 7:58 AM ET

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