SharpTake

Game forecast · REGULAR week 9

Texas Stateat#20 Boise State

Sat, Oct. 31 · 10:00 PM ET · Albertsons Stadium

SharpTake projects Boise State to win.

Boise StateProjected winner
80%Win probability
Boise State by 13.0Projected margin
SharpTakeBoise State by 13.0
Market SpreadBoise State -11.25

SharpTake is 1.75 points higher on Boise State.

On-field context

Matchup breakdown

These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.

Texas State explosive plays

CLEAR EDGE
Texas State offenseBoise State defense

Texas State creates big-play value on successful plays more often than most FBS teams, while Boise State allows big-play value on successful plays far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Texas State.

Offensive Explosiveness · 1.327Explosiveness measures the value created on successful plays, showing how damaging the big gains are.Better than most FBS teams
Explosiveness allowed · 1.381Explosiveness allowed measures the value opponents create on their successful plays.Among the weakest FBS results

Comparison basis · Explosiveness vs explosiveness allowed

Boise State disruption vs Texas State

EDGE
Texas State disruption allowedBoise State disruption created

Texas State avoids tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles far more often than most FBS teams, while Boise State creates tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Texas State.

Havoc Rate allowed · 12.1%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Among the strongest FBS results
Defensive Havoc Rate · 16.7%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Near the FBS middle

Comparison basis · Havoc allowed vs havoc created

Texas State finishing drives

EDGE
Texas State offenseBoise State defense

Texas State scores points after possessions cross the opponent's 40-yard line more often than most FBS teams, while Boise State allows points after possessions cross the opponent's 40-yard line more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Texas State.

Points per scoring opportunity · 4.42 pointsFinishing drives measures points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40-yard line.Better than most FBS teams
Points allowed per scoring opportunity · 4.14 pointsFinishing drives measures points allowed per possession that reaches the defense's 40-yard line.Worse than most FBS teams

Comparison basis · Points per scoring opportunity, for and allowed

Season aggregates only. How a specific opponent forces field position and drive length is not captured here.

Explore

Go deeper

Team reads

Texas State team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed. Boise State team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed. Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.

Position rooms

Texas State position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Boise State position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Coverage and limitations
  • Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
  • Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
  • Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.

Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.

Forecast model · Data cutoff Oct. 28, 2026 · 2:49 AM ET

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