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SharpTake is 4.0 points higher on Washington State.
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Washington State explosive plays
CLEAR EDGE
Washington State offenseSan Diego State defense
Washington State creates big-play value on successful plays far less often than most FBS teams, while San Diego State allows big-play value on successful plays far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors San Diego State.
Offensive Explosiveness · 1.114Explosiveness measures the value created on successful plays, showing how damaging the big gains are.Among the weakest FBS results
Explosiveness allowed · 1.147Explosiveness allowed measures the value opponents create on their successful plays.Among the strongest FBS results
Comparison basis · Explosiveness vs explosiveness allowed
Washington State staying on schedule
EDGE
Washington State offenseSan Diego State defense
Washington State gains enough yardage for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while San Diego State allows enough yardage for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors San Diego State.
Offensive Success Rate · 41.7%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 35.5%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
Washington State pass game
EDGE
Washington State offenseSan Diego State defense
Washington State gains enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while San Diego State allows enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors San Diego State.
Passing Success Rate · 41.1%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Passing Success Rate allowed · 33.0%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Washington State position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.San Diego State position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Coverage and limitations
Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.
Forecast model · Data cutoff Oct. 28, 2026 · 2:49 AM ET