Overall team quality
Strong Fresno State advantage
FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 5
Fresno StateatWashington State
Fresno State26
Washington State6
CALLED
SharpTake projected Fresno State at 50.3%. Fresno State won.
ProjectedWashington State by 0.5
ActualFresno State by 20
Difference20.5 pts
Market spreadWashington State -2.25
Vs spreadWINSharpTake Pick: Fresno State +2.25
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Fresno State 50.3%Washington State 49.7%
SharpTake projects Fresno State to win.
Fresno StateProjected winner
50.3%Win probability
Washington State by 0.5Projected margin
Mixed model signals: win probability leans Fresno State, while the projected margin points to Washington State. The win-probability signal remains primary; both outputs are shown as produced.
Why SharpTake leans
Why SharpTake leans Fresno State
Fresno State's overall quality is the biggest reason SharpTake favors Fresno State. Fresno State also has the edge in recent scoring performance, while Washington State's current season's results pushes the other way.
Current season's results
Washington State offset
Last season's results
Washington State offset
Recent scoring performance
Fresno State advantage
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Washington State explosive plays
CLEAR EDGEWashington State offenseFresno State defense
Washington State creates big-play value on successful plays far less often than most FBS teams, while Fresno State allows big-play value on successful plays far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Fresno State.
Offensive Explosiveness · 1.114Explosiveness measures the value created on successful plays, showing how damaging the big gains are.Among the weakest FBS results
Explosiveness allowed · 1.147Explosiveness allowed measures the value opponents create on their successful plays.Among the strongest FBS results
Comparison basis · Explosiveness vs explosiveness allowed
Fresno State finishing drives
EDGEFresno State offenseWashington State defense
Fresno State scores points after possessions cross the opponent's 40-yard line less often than most FBS teams, while Washington State allows points after possessions cross the opponent's 40-yard line less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Washington State.
Points per scoring opportunity · 3.29 pointsFinishing drives measures points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40-yard line.Worse than most FBS teams
Points allowed per scoring opportunity · 3.14 pointsFinishing drives measures points allowed per possession that reaches the defense's 40-yard line.Better than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Points per scoring opportunity, for and allowed
Season aggregates only. How a specific opponent forces field position and drive length is not captured here.
Staying on schedule
NO EDGEWashington State offenseFresno State defense
Washington State gains enough yardage for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while Fresno State allows enough yardage for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams. The evidence does not separate the teams enough for an advantage here.
Offensive Success Rate · 41.7%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 38.2%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Better than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
Explore
Go deeper
Team reads
Fresno State team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed.→
Washington State team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed.→
Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.→
Position rooms
Coverage and limitations
- Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
- Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
- Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.