Overall team quality
Washington State offset
FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 6
Washington StateatUtah State
Washington State16
Utah State17
CALLED
SharpTake projected Utah State at 55%. Utah State won.
ProjectedUtah State by 1.5
ActualUtah State by 1
Difference0.5 pts
Market spreadUtah State -4
Vs spreadWINSharpTake Pick: Washington State +4
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Washington State 45%Utah State 55%
SharpTake projects Utah State to win.
Utah StateProjected winner
55%Win probability
Utah State by 1.5Projected margin
Why SharpTake leans
Why SharpTake leans Utah State
Utah State's big-play ability is the biggest reason SharpTake favors Utah State. Utah State also has the edge in record from last season, while Washington State's overall quality pushes the other way.
Recent scoring performance
Washington State offset
Big-play ability
Slight Utah State advantage
Last season's results
Slight Utah State advantage
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Washington State explosive plays
EDGEWashington State offenseUtah State defense
Washington State creates big-play value on successful plays far less often than most FBS teams, while Utah State allows big-play value on successful plays at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Utah State.
Offensive Explosiveness · 1.114Explosiveness measures the value created on successful plays, showing how damaging the big gains are.Among the weakest FBS results
Explosiveness allowed · 1.263Explosiveness allowed measures the value opponents create on their successful plays.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Explosiveness vs explosiveness allowed
Disruption
NO EDGEWashington State disruption allowedUtah State disruption created
Washington State avoids tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles at a rate near the FBS middle, while Utah State creates tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles less often than most FBS teams. The evidence does not separate the teams enough for an advantage here.
Havoc Rate allowed · 15.7%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Near the FBS middle
Defensive Havoc Rate · 13.5%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Worse than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Havoc allowed vs havoc created
Staying on schedule
NO EDGEWashington State offenseUtah State defense
Washington State gains enough yardage for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while Utah State allows enough yardage for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. The evidence does not separate the teams enough for an advantage here.
Offensive Success Rate · 41.7%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 42.7%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
Explore
Go deeper
Team reads
Washington State team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed.→
Utah State team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed.→
Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.→
Position rooms
Coverage and limitations
- Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
- Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
- Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.