Control basic Google Analytics for this browser. Analytics is on by default for eligible U.S. visits; elsewhere, it needs your permission. Sports questions are not sent to Google Analytics. Privacy policy
Sat, Oct. 31 · 11:00 PM ET · Valley Children's Stadium
Oregon State 60%Fresno State 40%
SharpTake projects Oregon State to win.
Oregon StateProjected winner
60%Win probability
Oregon State by 4.0Projected margin
SharpTakeOregon State by 4.0
Market SpreadOregon State -5.75
Market is 1.75 points higher on Oregon State.
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Oregon State explosive plays
CLEAR EDGE
Oregon State offenseFresno State defense
Oregon State creates big-play value on successful plays far less often than most FBS teams, while Fresno State allows big-play value on successful plays far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Fresno State.
Offensive Explosiveness · 1.060Explosiveness measures the value created on successful plays, showing how damaging the big gains are.Among the weakest FBS results
Explosiveness allowed · 1.147Explosiveness allowed measures the value opponents create on their successful plays.Among the strongest FBS results
Comparison basis · Explosiveness vs explosiveness allowed
Oregon State finishing drives
CLEAR EDGE
Oregon State offenseFresno State defense
Oregon State scores points after possessions cross the opponent's 40-yard line far less often than most FBS teams, while Fresno State allows points after possessions cross the opponent's 40-yard line less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Fresno State.
Points per scoring opportunity · 2.89 pointsFinishing drives measures points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40-yard line.Among the weakest FBS results
Points allowed per scoring opportunity · 3.26 pointsFinishing drives measures points allowed per possession that reaches the defense's 40-yard line.Better than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Points per scoring opportunity, for and allowed
Season aggregates only. How a specific opponent forces field position and drive length is not captured here.
Staying on schedule
NO EDGE
Oregon State offenseFresno State defense
Oregon State gains enough yardage for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while Fresno State allows enough yardage for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams. The evidence does not separate the teams enough for an advantage here.
Offensive Success Rate · 42.6%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 38.2%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Better than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
Oregon State position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.Fresno State position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Coverage and limitations
Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.
Forecast model · Data cutoff Oct. 28, 2026 · 2:49 AM ET