Overall team quality
UConn advantage
FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 6
UConnatTemple
UConn34
Temple20
CALLED
SharpTake projected UConn at 51%. UConn won.
ProjectedUConn by 0.5
ActualUConn by 14
Difference13.5 pts
Market spreadTemple -3.75
Vs spreadWINSharpTake Pick: UConn +3.75
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
UConn 51%Temple 49%
SharpTake projects UConn to win.
UConnProjected winner
51%Win probability
UConn by 0.5Projected margin
Why SharpTake leans
Why SharpTake leans UConn
UConn's overall quality is the biggest reason SharpTake favors UConn. UConn also has the edge in down-to-down efficiency and current season's scoring performance, while Temple's record from last season pushes the other way.
Last season's results
Temple offset
Down-to-down efficiency
Slight UConn advantage
Current season's scoring performance
Slight UConn advantage
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
UConn finishing drives
CLEAR EDGEUConn offenseTemple defense
UConn scores points after possessions cross the opponent's 40-yard line far more often than most FBS teams, while Temple allows points after possessions cross the opponent's 40-yard line far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors UConn.
Points per scoring opportunity · 4.58 pointsFinishing drives measures points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40-yard line.Among the strongest FBS results
Points allowed per scoring opportunity · 4.77 pointsFinishing drives measures points allowed per possession that reaches the defense's 40-yard line.Among the weakest FBS results
Comparison basis · Points per scoring opportunity, for and allowed
Season aggregates only. How a specific opponent forces field position and drive length is not captured here.
UConn staying on schedule
EDGEUConn offenseTemple defense
UConn gains enough yardage for the down and distance more often than most FBS teams, while Temple allows enough yardage for the down and distance more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors UConn.
Offensive Success Rate · 45.9%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Better than most FBS teams
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 45.0%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
UConn run game
EDGEUConn offenseTemple defense
UConn gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while Temple allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors UConn.
Rushing Success Rate · 45.8%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 48.2%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Comparison basis · Rushing success rate vs rushing success rate allowed
Explore
Go deeper
Team reads
UConn team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed.→
Temple team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed.→
Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.→
Position rooms
Coverage and limitations
- Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
- Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
- Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.