SharpTake

FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 8

MassachusettsatUConn

Fri, Oct. 23 · 7:00 PM ET · Pratt & Whitney Stadium

Massachusetts16
UConn35
CALLED

SharpTake projected UConn at 86%. UConn won.

ProjectedUConn by 16.5
ActualUConn by 19
Difference2.5 pts
Market spreadUConn -12.5
Vs spreadWINSharpTake Pick: UConn -12.5

Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised

SharpTake projects UConn to win.

UConnProjected winner
86%Win probability
UConn by 16.5Projected margin

On-field context

Matchup breakdown

These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.

Massachusetts disruption vs UConn

CLEAR EDGE
UConn disruption allowedMassachusetts disruption created

UConn avoids tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles far more often than most FBS teams, while Massachusetts creates tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors UConn.

Havoc Rate allowed · 11.9%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Among the strongest FBS results
Defensive Havoc Rate · 8.6%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Among the weakest FBS results

Comparison basis · Havoc allowed vs havoc created

UConn finishing drives

CLEAR EDGE
UConn offenseMassachusetts defense

UConn scores points after possessions cross the opponent's 40-yard line far more often than most FBS teams, while Massachusetts allows points after possessions cross the opponent's 40-yard line far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors UConn.

Points per scoring opportunity · 4.58 pointsFinishing drives measures points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40-yard line.Among the strongest FBS results
Points allowed per scoring opportunity · 4.64 pointsFinishing drives measures points allowed per possession that reaches the defense's 40-yard line.Among the weakest FBS results

Comparison basis · Points per scoring opportunity, for and allowed

Season aggregates only. How a specific opponent forces field position and drive length is not captured here.

UConn staying on schedule

CLEAR EDGE
UConn offenseMassachusetts defense

UConn gains enough yardage for the down and distance more often than most FBS teams, while Massachusetts allows enough yardage for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors UConn.

Offensive Success Rate · 45.9%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Better than most FBS teams
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 48.6%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results

Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed

Explore

Go deeper

Team reads

Massachusetts team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed. UConn team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed. Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.

Position rooms

Massachusetts position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
UConn position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Coverage and limitations
  • Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
  • Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
  • Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.

Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.

Forecast model · Data cutoff Oct. 23, 2026 · 1:59 AM ET

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