SharpTake

Game forecast · REGULAR week 9

UConnatAir Force

Sat, Oct. 31 · 3:00 PM ET · Falcon Stadium

SharpTake projects Air Force to win.

Air ForceProjected winner
51%Win probability
Air Force by 0.5Projected margin
SharpTakeAir Force by 0.5
Market SpreadAir Force -1.25

Market is 0.75 points higher on Air Force.

On-field context

Matchup breakdown

These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.

Air Force staying on schedule

CLEAR EDGE
Air Force offenseUConn defense

Air Force gains enough yardage for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams, while UConn allows enough yardage for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Air Force.

Offensive Success Rate · 47.6%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 46.2%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results

Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed

Air Force disruption vs UConn

CLEAR EDGE
UConn disruption allowedAir Force disruption created

UConn avoids tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles far more often than most FBS teams, while Air Force creates tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors UConn.

Havoc Rate allowed · 11.9%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Among the strongest FBS results
Defensive Havoc Rate · 10.7%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Among the weakest FBS results

Comparison basis · Havoc allowed vs havoc created

Air Force run game

CLEAR EDGE
Air Force offenseUConn defense

Air Force gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance more often than most FBS teams, while UConn allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Air Force.

Rushing Success Rate · 48.2%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Better than most FBS teams
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 50.1%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results

Comparison basis · Rushing success rate vs rushing success rate allowed

Explore

Go deeper

Team reads

UConn team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed. Air Force team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed. Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.

Position rooms

UConn position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Air Force position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Coverage and limitations
  • Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
  • Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
  • Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.

Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.

Forecast model · Data cutoff Oct. 28, 2026 · 2:49 AM ET

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