Down-to-down efficiency
Memphis advantage
FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 1
Arkansas StateatMemphis
Arkansas State24
Memphis42
CALLED
SharpTake projected Memphis at 85%. Memphis won.
ProjectedMemphis by 17.5
ActualMemphis by 18
Difference0.5 pts
Market spreadMemphis -10.5
Vs spreadWINSharpTake Pick: Memphis -10.5
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Arkansas State 15%Memphis 85%
SharpTake projects Memphis to win.
MemphisProjected winner
85%Win probability
Memphis by 17.5Projected margin
Why SharpTake leans
Why SharpTake leans Memphis
Memphis's down-to-down efficiency is the biggest reason SharpTake favors Memphis. Memphis also has the edge in overall quality and running-game efficiency.
Overall team quality
Memphis advantage
Running-game efficiency
Memphis advantage
Big-play ability
Slight Memphis advantage
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Memphis run game
EDGEMemphis offenseArkansas State defense
Memphis gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams, while Arkansas State allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Memphis.
Rushing Success Rate · 49.8%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 43.4%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Rushing success rate vs rushing success rate allowed
Arkansas State explosive plays
EDGEArkansas State offenseMemphis defense
Arkansas State creates big-play value on successful plays far less often than most FBS teams, while Memphis allows big-play value on successful plays at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Memphis.
Offensive Explosiveness · 1.137Explosiveness measures the value created on successful plays, showing how damaging the big gains are.Among the weakest FBS results
Explosiveness allowed · 1.290Explosiveness allowed measures the value opponents create on their successful plays.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Explosiveness vs explosiveness allowed
Memphis disruption vs Arkansas State
EDGEArkansas State disruption allowedMemphis disruption created
Arkansas State avoids tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles less often than most FBS teams, while Memphis creates tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Memphis.
Havoc Rate allowed · 17.8%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Worse than most FBS teams
Defensive Havoc Rate · 17.8%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Better than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Havoc allowed vs havoc created
Explore
Go deeper
Team reads
Arkansas State team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed.→
Memphis team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed.→
Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.→
Position rooms
Coverage and limitations
- Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
- Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
- Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
- Neither team has completed a game this season; the forecast rests on prior-season evidence.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.