Overall team quality
Strong South Florida advantage
Why SharpTake leans
Why SharpTake leans South Florida
South Florida's overall quality is the biggest reason SharpTake favors South Florida. South Florida also has the edge in down-to-down efficiency and running-game efficiency, while Florida International's record from last season pushes the other way.
Down-to-down efficiency
Strong South Florida advantage
Running-game efficiency
South Florida advantage
Last season's results
Florida International offset
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
South Florida run game
EDGESouth Florida offenseFlorida International defense
South Florida gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance more often than most FBS teams, while Florida International allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors South Florida.
Rushing Success Rate · 48.3%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Better than most FBS teams
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 45.7%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Rushing success rate vs rushing success rate allowed
Staying on schedule
NO EDGESouth Florida offenseFlorida International defense
South Florida gains enough yardage for the down and distance more often than most FBS teams, while Florida International allows enough yardage for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. The evidence does not separate the teams enough for an advantage here.
Offensive Success Rate · 46.7%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Better than most FBS teams
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 41.9%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
Pass game
NO EDGESouth Florida offenseFlorida International defense
South Florida gains enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance more often than most FBS teams, while Florida International allows enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. The evidence does not separate the teams enough for an advantage here.
Passing Success Rate · 45.7%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Better than most FBS teams
Passing Success Rate allowed · 39.2%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Passing success rate vs passing success rate allowed
Explore
Go deeper
Team reads
Florida International team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed.→
South Florida team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed.→
Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.→
Position rooms
Coverage and limitations
- Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
- Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
- Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
- Neither team has completed a game this season; the forecast rests on prior-season evidence.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.