Current season's results
Strong Sam Houston advantage
Why SharpTake leans
Why SharpTake leans Sam Houston
Sam Houston's current season's results is the biggest reason SharpTake favors Sam Houston. Sam Houston also has the edge in record from last season, while Tulsa's overall quality pushes the other way.
Overall team quality
Tulsa offset
Down-to-down efficiency
Tulsa offset
Last season's results
Sam Houston advantage
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Tulsa staying on schedule
EDGETulsa offenseSam Houston defense
Tulsa gains enough yardage for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while Sam Houston allows enough yardage for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Tulsa.
Offensive Success Rate · 40.5%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 47.9%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
Sam Houston pass game
EDGESam Houston offenseTulsa defense
Sam Houston gains enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams, while Tulsa allows enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Tulsa.
Passing Success Rate · 33.9%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Passing Success Rate allowed · 43.4%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Passing success rate vs passing success rate allowed
Sam Houston finishing drives
EDGESam Houston offenseTulsa defense
Sam Houston scores points after possessions cross the opponent's 40-yard line far less often than most FBS teams, while Tulsa allows points after possessions cross the opponent's 40-yard line at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Tulsa.
Points per scoring opportunity · 2.79 pointsFinishing drives measures points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40-yard line.Among the weakest FBS results
Points allowed per scoring opportunity · 3.78 pointsFinishing drives measures points allowed per possession that reaches the defense's 40-yard line.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Points per scoring opportunity, for and allowed
Season aggregates only. How a specific opponent forces field position and drive length is not captured here.
Explore
Go deeper
Team reads
Tulsa team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed.→
Sam Houston team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed.→
Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.→
Position rooms
Coverage and limitations
- Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
- Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
- Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.