Overall team quality
Strong Navy advantage
FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 4
NavyatUAB
Navy20
UAB24
MISSED
SharpTake projected Navy at 77%. UAB won.
ProjectedNavy by 12.0
ActualUAB by 4
Difference16.0 pts
Market spreadNavy -6.5
Vs spreadLOSSSharpTake Pick: Navy -6.5
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Navy 77%UAB 23%
SharpTake projects Navy to win.
NavyProjected winner
77%Win probability
Navy by 12.0Projected margin
Why SharpTake leans
Why SharpTake leans Navy
Navy's overall quality is the biggest reason SharpTake favors Navy. Navy also has the edge in down-to-down efficiency and running-game efficiency, while UAB's record from last season pushes the other way.
Down-to-down efficiency
Strong Navy advantage
Last season's results
UAB offset
Running-game efficiency
Navy advantage
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Navy staying on schedule
CLEAR EDGENavy offenseUAB defense
Navy gains enough yardage for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams, while UAB allows enough yardage for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Navy.
Offensive Success Rate · 49.0%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 48.8%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
Navy run game
CLEAR EDGENavy offenseUAB defense
Navy gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams, while UAB allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Navy.
Rushing Success Rate · 51.7%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 49.8%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Comparison basis · Rushing success rate vs rushing success rate allowed
UAB disruption vs Navy
CLEAR EDGENavy disruption allowedUAB disruption created
Navy avoids tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles far more often than most FBS teams, while UAB creates tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Navy.
Havoc Rate allowed · 9.2%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Among the strongest FBS results
Defensive Havoc Rate · 12.0%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Among the weakest FBS results
Comparison basis · Havoc allowed vs havoc created
Explore
Go deeper
Team reads
Navy team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed.→
UAB team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed.→
Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.→
Position rooms
Coverage and limitations
- Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
- Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
- Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.