Overall team quality
Strong Army advantage
FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 4
ArmyatTemple
Army21
Temple17
CALLED
SharpTake projected Army at 71%. Army won.
ProjectedArmy by 9.0
ActualArmy by 4
Difference5.0 pts
Market spreadArmy -3
Vs spreadWINSharpTake Pick: Army -3
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Army 71%Temple 29%
SharpTake projects Army to win.
ArmyProjected winner
71%Win probability
Army by 9.0Projected margin
Why SharpTake leans
Why SharpTake leans Army
Army's overall quality is the biggest reason SharpTake favors Army. Army also has the edge in current season's scoring performance and recent scoring performance, while Temple's record from last season pushes the other way.
Current season's scoring performance
Army advantage
Recent scoring performance
Army advantage
Last season's results
Temple offset
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Army run game
EDGEArmy offenseTemple defense
Army gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while Temple allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Army.
Rushing Success Rate · 43.0%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 48.2%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Comparison basis · Rushing success rate vs rushing success rate allowed
Temple explosive plays
EDGETemple offenseArmy defense
Temple creates big-play value on successful plays at a rate near the FBS middle, while Army allows big-play value on successful plays far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Army.
Offensive Explosiveness · 1.197Explosiveness measures the value created on successful plays, showing how damaging the big gains are.Near the FBS middle
Explosiveness allowed · 1.109Explosiveness allowed measures the value opponents create on their successful plays.Among the strongest FBS results
Comparison basis · Explosiveness vs explosiveness allowed
Army disruption vs Temple
EDGETemple disruption allowedArmy disruption created
Temple avoids tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles at a rate near the FBS middle, while Army creates tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Temple.
Havoc Rate allowed · 14.4%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Near the FBS middle
Defensive Havoc Rate · 12.7%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Among the weakest FBS results
Comparison basis · Havoc allowed vs havoc created
Explore
Go deeper
Team reads
Army team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed.→
Temple team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed.→
Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.→
Position rooms
Coverage and limitations
- Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
- Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
- Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.