Overall team quality
Strong Louisiana advantage
FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 4
LouisianaatCharlotte
Louisiana34
Charlotte7
CALLED
SharpTake projected Louisiana at 73%. Louisiana won.
ProjectedLouisiana by 9.0
ActualLouisiana by 27
Difference18.0 pts
Market spreadLouisiana -9.25
Vs spreadLOSSSharpTake Pick: Charlotte +9.25
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Louisiana 73%Charlotte 27%
SharpTake projects Louisiana to win.
LouisianaProjected winner
73%Win probability
Louisiana by 9.0Projected margin
Why SharpTake leans
Why SharpTake leans Louisiana
Louisiana's overall quality is the biggest reason SharpTake favors Louisiana. Louisiana also has the edge in down-to-down efficiency, while Charlotte's current season's results pushes the other way.
Current season's results
Charlotte offset
Last season's results
Charlotte offset
Down-to-down efficiency
Louisiana advantage
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Louisiana run game
EDGELouisiana offenseCharlotte defense
Louisiana gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while Charlotte allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Louisiana.
Rushing Success Rate · 42.3%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 52.7%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Comparison basis · Rushing success rate vs rushing success rate allowed
Louisiana explosive plays
EDGELouisiana offenseCharlotte defense
Louisiana creates big-play value on successful plays at a rate near the FBS middle, while Charlotte allows big-play value on successful plays far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Charlotte.
Offensive Explosiveness · 1.204Explosiveness measures the value created on successful plays, showing how damaging the big gains are.Near the FBS middle
Explosiveness allowed · 1.037Explosiveness allowed measures the value opponents create on their successful plays.Among the strongest FBS results
Comparison basis · Explosiveness vs explosiveness allowed
Charlotte disruption vs Louisiana
EDGELouisiana disruption allowedCharlotte disruption created
Louisiana avoids tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles at a rate near the FBS middle, while Charlotte creates tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Louisiana.
Havoc Rate allowed · 16.0%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Near the FBS middle
Defensive Havoc Rate · 10.6%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Among the weakest FBS results
Comparison basis · Havoc allowed vs havoc created
Explore
Go deeper
Team reads
Louisiana team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed.→
Charlotte team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed.→
Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.→
Position rooms
Coverage and limitations
- Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
- Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
- Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.