Overall team quality
Strong Florida Atlantic advantage
FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 4
Florida AtlanticatUL Monroe
Florida Atlantic45
UL Monroe17
CALLED
SharpTake projected Florida Atlantic at 56%. Florida Atlantic won.
ProjectedFlorida Atlantic by 2.0
ActualFlorida Atlantic by 28
Difference26.0 pts
Market spreadFlorida Atlantic -11.5
Vs spreadLOSSSharpTake Pick: UL Monroe +11.5
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Florida Atlantic 56%UL Monroe 44%
SharpTake projects Florida Atlantic to win.
Florida AtlanticProjected winner
56%Win probability
Florida Atlantic by 2.0Projected margin
Why SharpTake leans
Why SharpTake leans Florida Atlantic
Florida Atlantic's overall quality is the biggest reason SharpTake favors Florida Atlantic. Florida Atlantic also has the edge in down-to-down efficiency, while UL Monroe's current season's results pushes the other way.
Current season's results
UL Monroe offset
Down-to-down efficiency
Slight Florida Atlantic advantage
Last season's results
UL Monroe offset
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Florida Atlantic explosive plays
CLEAR EDGEFlorida Atlantic offenseUL Monroe defense
Florida Atlantic creates big-play value on successful plays far more often than most FBS teams, while UL Monroe allows big-play value on successful plays more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Florida Atlantic.
Offensive Explosiveness · 1.389Explosiveness measures the value created on successful plays, showing how damaging the big gains are.Among the strongest FBS results
Explosiveness allowed · 1.351Explosiveness allowed measures the value opponents create on their successful plays.Worse than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Explosiveness vs explosiveness allowed
Staying on schedule
NO EDGEUL Monroe offenseFlorida Atlantic defense
UL Monroe gains enough yardage for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams, while Florida Atlantic allows enough yardage for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. The evidence does not separate the teams enough for an advantage here.
Offensive Success Rate · 37.1%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 43.9%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
Pass game
NO EDGEUL Monroe offenseFlorida Atlantic defense
UL Monroe gains enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams, while Florida Atlantic allows enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. The evidence does not separate the teams enough for an advantage here.
Passing Success Rate · 37.9%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams
Passing Success Rate allowed · 40.6%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Passing success rate vs passing success rate allowed
Explore
Go deeper
Team reads
Florida Atlantic team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed.→
UL Monroe team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed.→
Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.→
Position rooms
Coverage and limitations
- Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
- Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
- Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.