Overall team quality
Strong Tulane advantage
FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 4
Southern MissatTulane
Southern Miss21
Tulane24
CALLED
SharpTake projected Tulane at 81%. Tulane won.
ProjectedTulane by 15.0
ActualTulane by 3
Difference12.0 pts
Market spreadTulane -18.5
Vs spreadWINSharpTake Pick: Southern Miss +18.5
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Southern Miss 19%Tulane 81%
SharpTake projects Tulane to win.
TulaneProjected winner
81%Win probability
Tulane by 15.0Projected margin
Why SharpTake leans
Why SharpTake leans Tulane
Tulane's overall quality is the biggest reason SharpTake favors Tulane. Tulane also has the edge in big-play ability, while Southern Miss's record from last season pushes the other way.
Last season's results
Southern Miss offset
Big-play ability
Slight Tulane advantage
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Tulane pass game
EDGETulane offenseSouthern Miss defense
Tulane gains enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams, while Southern Miss allows enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Tulane.
Passing Success Rate · 47.8%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Passing Success Rate allowed · 40.5%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Passing success rate vs passing success rate allowed
Run game
NO EDGESouthern Miss offenseTulane defense
Southern Miss gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams, while Tulane allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. The evidence does not separate the teams enough for an advantage here.
Rushing Success Rate · 39.8%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 43.8%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Rushing success rate vs rushing success rate allowed
Explosive plays
NO EDGETulane offenseSouthern Miss defense
Tulane creates big-play value on successful plays less often than most FBS teams, while Southern Miss allows big-play value on successful plays at a rate near the FBS middle. The evidence does not separate the teams enough for an advantage here.
Offensive Explosiveness · 1.175Explosiveness measures the value created on successful plays, showing how damaging the big gains are.Worse than most FBS teams
Explosiveness allowed · 1.215Explosiveness allowed measures the value opponents create on their successful plays.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Explosiveness vs explosiveness allowed
Explore
Go deeper
Team reads
Southern Miss team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed.→
Tulane team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed.→
Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.→
Position rooms
Coverage and limitations
- Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
- Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
- Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.