Overall team quality
Strong South Florida advantage
FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 4
South FloridaatBowling Green
South Florida14
Bowling Green6
CALLED
SharpTake projected South Florida at 92%. South Florida won.
ProjectedSouth Florida by 21.5
ActualSouth Florida by 8
Difference13.5 pts
Market spreadSouth Florida -17.75
Vs spreadLOSSSharpTake Pick: South Florida -17.75
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
South Florida 92%Bowling Green 8%
SharpTake projects South Florida to win.
South FloridaProjected winner
92%Win probability
South Florida by 21.5Projected margin
Why SharpTake leans
Why SharpTake leans South Florida
South Florida's overall quality is the biggest reason SharpTake favors South Florida. South Florida also has the edge in down-to-down efficiency and current season's scoring performance, while Bowling Green's current season's results pushes the other way.
Down-to-down efficiency
Strong South Florida advantage
Current season's results
Bowling Green offset
Current season's scoring performance
South Florida advantage
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Bowling Green staying on schedule
CLEAR EDGEBowling Green offenseSouth Florida defense
Bowling Green gains enough yardage for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams, while South Florida allows enough yardage for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors South Florida.
Offensive Success Rate · 36.0%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 38.0%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Better than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
Bowling Green run game
CLEAR EDGEBowling Green offenseSouth Florida defense
Bowling Green gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams, while South Florida allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors South Florida.
Rushing Success Rate · 37.2%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 37.9%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Better than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Rushing success rate vs rushing success rate allowed
Bowling Green pass game
EDGEBowling Green offenseSouth Florida defense
Bowling Green gains enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams, while South Florida allows enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors South Florida.
Passing Success Rate · 35.3%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Passing Success Rate allowed · 38.5%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Passing success rate vs passing success rate allowed
Explore
Go deeper
Team reads
South Florida team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed.→
Bowling Green team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed.→
Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.→
Position rooms
Coverage and limitations
- Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
- Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
- Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.