Overall team quality
Strong North Texas advantage
FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 5
North TexasatTulsa
North Texas45
Tulsa44
CALLED
SharpTake projected North Texas at 73%. North Texas won.
ProjectedNorth Texas by 10.0
ActualNorth Texas by 1
Difference9.0 pts
Market spreadNorth Texas -1.75
Vs spreadLOSSSharpTake Pick: North Texas -1.75
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
North Texas 73%Tulsa 27%
SharpTake projects North Texas to win.
North TexasProjected winner
73%Win probability
North Texas by 10.0Projected margin
Why SharpTake leans
Why SharpTake leans North Texas
North Texas's overall quality is the biggest reason SharpTake favors North Texas. North Texas also has the edge in down-to-down efficiency and current season's results, while Tulsa's record from last season pushes the other way.
Last season's results
Tulsa offset
Down-to-down efficiency
North Texas advantage
Current season's results
North Texas advantage
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
North Texas pass game
CLEAR EDGENorth Texas offenseTulsa defense
North Texas gains enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams, while Tulsa allows enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors North Texas.
Passing Success Rate · 51.9%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Passing Success Rate allowed · 44.4%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Passing success rate vs passing success rate allowed
Tulsa disruption vs North Texas
CLEAR EDGENorth Texas disruption allowedTulsa disruption created
North Texas avoids tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles far more often than most FBS teams, while Tulsa creates tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors North Texas.
Havoc Rate allowed · 11.5%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Among the strongest FBS results
Defensive Havoc Rate · 13.0%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Worse than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Havoc allowed vs havoc created
North Texas staying on schedule
EDGENorth Texas offenseTulsa defense
North Texas gains enough yardage for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams, while Tulsa allows enough yardage for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors North Texas.
Offensive Success Rate · 51.6%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 43.4%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
Explore
Go deeper
Team reads
North Texas team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed.→
Tulsa team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed.→
Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.→
Position rooms
Coverage and limitations
- Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
- Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
- Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.