Overall team quality
Strong Memphis advantage
FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 5
MemphisatCharlotte
Memphis59
Charlotte8
CALLED
SharpTake projected Memphis at 87%. Memphis won.
ProjectedMemphis by 17.5
ActualMemphis by 51
Difference33.5 pts
Market spreadMemphis -20.5
Vs spreadLOSSSharpTake Pick: Charlotte +20.5
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Memphis 87%Charlotte 13%
SharpTake projects Memphis to win.
MemphisProjected winner
87%Win probability
Memphis by 17.5Projected margin
Why SharpTake leans
Why SharpTake leans Memphis
Memphis's overall quality is the biggest reason SharpTake favors Memphis. Memphis also has the edge in down-to-down efficiency, while Charlotte's record from last season pushes the other way.
Down-to-down efficiency
Strong Memphis advantage
Last season's results
Charlotte offset
Current season's results
Charlotte offset
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Memphis run game
CLEAR EDGEMemphis offenseCharlotte defense
Memphis gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams, while Charlotte allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Memphis.
Rushing Success Rate · 49.8%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 52.7%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Comparison basis · Rushing success rate vs rushing success rate allowed
Memphis staying on schedule
EDGEMemphis offenseCharlotte defense
Memphis gains enough yardage for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while Charlotte allows enough yardage for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Memphis.
Offensive Success Rate · 45.1%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 52.4%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
Memphis pass game
EDGEMemphis offenseCharlotte defense
Memphis gains enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while Charlotte allows enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Memphis.
Passing Success Rate · 40.8%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Passing Success Rate allowed · 52.8%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Comparison basis · Passing success rate vs passing success rate allowed
Explore
Go deeper
Team reads
Memphis team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed.→
Charlotte team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed.→
Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.→
Position rooms
Coverage and limitations
- Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
- Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
- Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.