SharpTake

FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 5

UTSAatRice

Sat, Oct. 3 · 7:00 PM ET · Rice Stadium

UTSA16
Rice14
CALLED

SharpTake projected UTSA at 77%. UTSA won.

ProjectedUTSA by 10.5
ActualUTSA by 2
Difference8.5 pts
Market spreadUTSA -12.5
Vs spreadWINSharpTake Pick: Rice +12.5

Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised

SharpTake projects UTSA to win.

UTSAProjected winner
77%Win probability
UTSA by 10.5Projected margin

Why SharpTake leans

Why SharpTake leans UTSA

UTSA's overall quality is the biggest reason SharpTake favors UTSA. UTSA also has the edge in down-to-down efficiency, while Rice's current season's results pushes the other way.

Overall team quality

Strong UTSA advantage

Down-to-down efficiency

UTSA advantage

Current season's results

Rice offset

Last season's results

Rice offset

On-field context

Matchup breakdown

These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.

Rice staying on schedule

CLEAR EDGE
Rice offenseUTSA defense

Rice gains enough yardage for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams, while UTSA allows enough yardage for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors UTSA.

Offensive Success Rate · 35.5%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 38.1%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Better than most FBS teams

Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed

Rice run game

CLEAR EDGE
Rice offenseUTSA defense

Rice gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams, while UTSA allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors UTSA.

Rushing Success Rate · 37.3%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 38.1%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Better than most FBS teams

Comparison basis · Rushing success rate vs rushing success rate allowed

UTSA explosive plays

CLEAR EDGE
UTSA offenseRice defense

UTSA creates big-play value on successful plays more often than most FBS teams, while Rice allows big-play value on successful plays far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors UTSA.

Offensive Explosiveness · 1.319Explosiveness measures the value created on successful plays, showing how damaging the big gains are.Better than most FBS teams
Explosiveness allowed · 1.489Explosiveness allowed measures the value opponents create on their successful plays.Among the weakest FBS results

Comparison basis · Explosiveness vs explosiveness allowed

Explore

Go deeper

Team reads

UTSA team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed. Rice team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed. Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.

Position rooms

UTSA position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Rice position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Coverage and limitations
  • Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
  • Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
  • Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.

Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.

Forecast model · Data cutoff Oct. 3, 2026 · 7:00 PM ET

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