Overall team quality
Strong Navy advantage
FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 5
NavyatAir Force
Navy9
Air Force14
MISSED
SharpTake projected Navy at 60%. Air Force won.
ProjectedNavy by 4.5
ActualAir Force by 5
Difference9.5 pts
Market spreadAir Force -3
Vs spreadLOSSSharpTake Pick: Navy +3
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Navy 60%Air Force 40%
SharpTake projects Navy to win.
NavyProjected winner
60%Win probability
Navy by 4.5Projected margin
Why SharpTake leans
Why SharpTake leans Navy
Navy's overall quality is the biggest reason SharpTake favors Navy. Navy also has the edge in down-to-down efficiency and current season's results, while Air Force's record from last season pushes the other way.
Last season's results
Air Force offset
Down-to-down efficiency
Navy advantage
Current season's results
Navy advantage
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Navy staying on schedule
CLEAR EDGENavy offenseAir Force defense
Navy gains enough yardage for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams, while Air Force allows enough yardage for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Navy.
Offensive Success Rate · 49.0%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 49.4%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
Air Force disruption vs Navy
CLEAR EDGENavy disruption allowedAir Force disruption created
Navy avoids tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles far more often than most FBS teams, while Air Force creates tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Navy.
Havoc Rate allowed · 9.2%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Among the strongest FBS results
Defensive Havoc Rate · 10.7%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Among the weakest FBS results
Comparison basis · Havoc allowed vs havoc created
Navy run game
CLEAR EDGENavy offenseAir Force defense
Navy gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams, while Air Force allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Navy.
Rushing Success Rate · 51.7%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 45.3%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Rushing success rate vs rushing success rate allowed
Explore
Go deeper
Team reads
Navy team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed.→
Air Force team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed.→
Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.→
Position rooms
Coverage and limitations
- Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
- Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
- Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.