Overall team quality
Strong South Florida advantage
FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 5
TempleatSouth Florida
Temple17
South Florida13
MISSED
SharpTake projected South Florida at 88%. Temple won.
ProjectedSouth Florida by 19.0
ActualTemple by 4
Difference23.0 pts
Market spreadSouth Florida -5.5
Vs spreadLOSSSharpTake Pick: South Florida -5.5
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Temple 12%South Florida 88%
SharpTake projects South Florida to win.
South FloridaProjected winner
88%Win probability
South Florida by 19.0Projected margin
Why SharpTake leans
Why SharpTake leans South Florida
South Florida's overall quality is the biggest reason SharpTake favors South Florida. South Florida also has the edge in down-to-down efficiency, while Temple's current season's results pushes the other way.
Current season's results
Temple offset
Down-to-down efficiency
South Florida advantage
Last season's results
Temple offset
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
South Florida run game
CLEAR EDGESouth Florida offenseTemple defense
South Florida gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance more often than most FBS teams, while Temple allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors South Florida.
Rushing Success Rate · 48.3%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Better than most FBS teams
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 48.2%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Comparison basis · Rushing success rate vs rushing success rate allowed
South Florida finishing drives
CLEAR EDGESouth Florida offenseTemple defense
South Florida scores points after possessions cross the opponent's 40-yard line more often than most FBS teams, while Temple allows points after possessions cross the opponent's 40-yard line far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors South Florida.
Points per scoring opportunity · 4.45 pointsFinishing drives measures points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40-yard line.Better than most FBS teams
Points allowed per scoring opportunity · 4.77 pointsFinishing drives measures points allowed per possession that reaches the defense's 40-yard line.Among the weakest FBS results
Comparison basis · Points per scoring opportunity, for and allowed
Season aggregates only. How a specific opponent forces field position and drive length is not captured here.
South Florida staying on schedule
EDGESouth Florida offenseTemple defense
South Florida gains enough yardage for the down and distance more often than most FBS teams, while Temple allows enough yardage for the down and distance more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors South Florida.
Offensive Success Rate · 46.7%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Better than most FBS teams
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 45.0%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
Explore
Go deeper
Team reads
Temple team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed.→
South Florida team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed.→
Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.→
Position rooms
Coverage and limitations
- Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
- Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
- Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.